日本央行暗示可能升息,日圓上漲

受日本央行決策者同意進一步升息以應對通膨壓力的推動,日圓兌美元匯率週四升至八周高點。與此形成鮮明對比的是,在英國央行按預期下調利率之後,英鎊出現了低迷。不過,英國央行警告稱,通膨上升和經濟成長乏力,加上兩名官員推動更大幅度降息,英鎊因此下跌0.8%,至1.24065美元。英鎊兌美元週三曾觸及1.2437美元的一個月高點。

在英國央行採取這項措施後,金融市場目前預計年底前還將進一步放寬貨幣政策約67個基點。分析師表示,英國以服務業為主導的經濟可能會緩和英鎊的下跌,因為英國面臨的全球貿易緊張局勢的風險較小。同時,美元指數小幅上漲至107.92,徘徊在上周初以來的最低水準附近,因為人們對貿易戰擔憂緩解的樂觀情緒有所增強。該指數已從1月13日創下的兩年高點110.17下跌2%,部分原因是美國暫停對墨西哥和加拿大徵收關稅,同時對中國商品徵收10%的新關稅。投資者正在等待週五的美國就業報告,以尋找未來貨幣政策的線索。

在日本,美元兌日圓曾錄得151.81,為去年12月12日以來的最低水平,此前日本央行理事田村直樹主張逐步加息以應對通膨,匯價也跟隨回吐。田村的言論支撐了日本央行9月前升息25個基點的預期。相較之下,市場完全消化了聯準會7月降息25個基點的預期,預計到12月將累積降息46個基點。

在其他市場,離岸人民幣小幅下跌,加幣曾觸及12月17日高位,之後美元兌加幣穩定在1.43405。歐元兌美元匯率下跌0.36%,至1.0363,反映出更廣泛的外匯市場調整。

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