英鎊兌日圓可能面臨修正風險

英鎊兌日圓的匯率在195.98處出現了拋售,並且有可能出現修正。

GBPJPY – Daily Chart
英鎊兌日圓-日圖

自3月以來,英鎊兌日圓已經三度試圖突破這一阻力位,多頭可能就此妥協。 192位似乎是進一步走軟的首個目標。

香港時間下午2點公佈的數據將是英國消費者物價指數,經濟學家預期數據為0.2%,前一個月為1.2%。如果消費者陷入通貨緊縮,這可能對英鎊不利。

日本央行週二沒有出人意料的消息,將短期利率維持在0.5%不變。該匯率仍徘徊在2008年以來的最高水平,這讓英鎊在最近的阻力位上失去了一些動力。

如果市場預期日本將因關稅而降息,那麼他們可能不會減少對日圓的看跌押注。

上田行長表示,通膨預期尚未達到2%的水平,並談到了對關​​稅影響未來薪資的擔憂。這種鴿派的訊息是“謹慎、謹慎、謹慎”,日本央行可能要到2026年才會降息。

在債券市場,日本政府將承諾在2026年第二季之前每季減少4,000億日圓的購買,儘管最近市場出現了問題。然而,日本央行表示,到2027年第二季度,將把這一數字削減一半,至每季2,000億日圓。

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