面對不確定性,英國央行維持利率不變

由於全球風險,英國央行維持利率不變後,零售銷售數據即將公佈。

EURGBP - Daily Chart
歐元兌英鎊-日走勢圖

歐元兌英鎊在最近歐元反彈後暫停,如果英國零售銷售回升,匯價可能會再次下跌。

英國零售銷售數據將於香港時間下午14:00公佈,可能進一步提振英鎊。不過,這項數據預計將較上月下降0.5%,遠低於4月1.2%的增幅。

英國央行的觀點是,3.4%的通膨率將在未來幾個月保持高位,但在失業率上升的推動下,明年將回落。這應該會損害工資需求並降低通膨。近期油價走高有可能抵銷此影響。

「利率仍在逐步下行,儘管我們今天維持利率不變,」央行總裁貝利表示。 “世界是高度不可預測的。”

自去年8月首次將利率從16年高點5.25%下調25個基點以來,英國央行一直保持謹慎,每三個月降息一次。按照目前的路徑,下一次降息將在8月。

經濟學家認為,這仍是最有可能的結果,但他們警告稱,地緣政治事件風險可能導致重新評估。

「中東衝突的進一步升級可能推高英國通膨,這可能促使英國央行採取更謹慎的行動,」Aberdeen Asset的Felix Feather表示。

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