美元兌日圓等待經濟成長和零售銷售數據

在大幅拋售之後,週四的經濟數據將考驗美元兌日圓匯率的反彈。

USDJPY – Daily Chart

美元兌日圓-日圖

美元兌日圓已從大幅回檔中反彈至148附近。最近日圓匯率的疲軟震動了東京股市,交易員們將密切關注最新的數據。

週四香港時間上午7:50將公佈日本經濟年化GDP成長數據,分析師預計將從上月的-2.0%大幅逆轉至2.1%。

如果日本經濟如預期那樣走強,最新的初步數據可能有助於支持日本央行最近的升息。

在幹預匯市以減緩日圓走軟之後,日本央行出人意料地升息,關閉了賣空者的大門。這震動了日本股市,並導致日本央行退出了此時進一步調整貨幣政策的計畫。

美國將在晚間稍後公佈零售銷售數據。該指數預計為0.3%,高於上月持平的0%。

疲弱的物價數據增加了聯準會9月降息的可能性後,美元週三走低。

美國7月CPI年減至3.0%放緩至2.9%,略優於3.0%不變的預期,也是三年來最小的年增幅。 7月扣除食品和能源的CPI從6月的3.3%下降到3.2%,符合預期,也是三年來最小的年增長率。

市場資深人士Ed Yardeni表示,聯準會今年只會降息一次,因為經濟過於強勁。這與許多其他分析師的看法相反,他們預計9月將降息,12月將降息。

經濟學家擔心美國會陷入衰退,有些人希望降低利率以減輕壓力。

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