美國科技股維持強勁,但利率迫在眉睫

美國納斯達克 100 指數的股票交易價格接近 2024 年的高點,但更高的利率帶來謹慎。

NAS 100 – Daily Chart

NAS 100 – 日間線圖

週四,在債券價格小幅下跌後,納斯達克 100 指數交易價格為 21,818。歷史高點近在咫尺,支撐位已在 20,781 處測試一次。

週四,科技股小幅下跌,因為美國債券殖利率達到六個月高點。市場反彈的部分原因是聯準會迅速降息的預期,但上週的 FOMC 利率決定抑制了這種預期。

聯準會只發出了 2025 年兩次降息的信號,但交易員可能對經濟結果不太確定。對唐納德川普新政府放鬆管制的預期也可能是交易員忽視聯準會更新的原因。市場預計 1 月 28 日至 29 日 FOMC 會議上降息 25 個基點的可能性為 9%。

美國股市受到亞洲股市的提振,中國股市收盤小幅走高,因為市場猜測中國可能在 2025 年發行創紀錄的 3 兆元(4,110 億美元)特別國債以支持經濟。川普的關稅威脅可能會確保中國人民銀行採取某種形式的行動。

未來一年將依賴人工智慧的反彈,大型科技公司是否能繼續向 Nvidia 等公司的圖形晶片投入數十億美元還有待觀察。

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