美國股市聚焦接下來的通脹數據以尋求指引

週五,美國和加拿大的就業數據將為該貨幣對提供指引。

US30 – Weekly Chart - inflation data guidance

US30 – 週線圖

道瓊斯工業平均指數已突破 34,500 點,並可能進一步朝 36,971 點的歷史高點前進。

本週核心通脹率的預測值是維持在4.8%,而同比通脹率預計將從3%升至3.3%。較低的讀數可能會推動美國股市進一步上漲。

美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾上週的言論表現出鷹派立場。鮑威爾7月26日在華盛頓對記者表示,他預計通脹率要到2025年左右才會降至2%。

鮑威爾表示:“讓通脹率回落至 2% 的過程還有很長的路要走。” 6月份消費者價格指數上漲0.2%後,美聯儲將基準利率上調至5.25%至5.5%的區間。

目前3%的通脹率距離9.1%的峰值還有很長的路要走,但鮑威爾仍在尋求將通脹率大幅降至2%的機會。 “如果我們看到通脹可靠並持續地下降,那麼我們就不需要再維持高利率水平了,”他解釋道。 “在遠未達到 2% 之前,你就會停止加息。” 另一位美聯儲官員米歇爾·鮑曼表示,需要進一步加息。

鮑曼表示,“過去一年我們在降低通脹方面取得了進展,但通脹仍遠高於”美聯儲 2% 的目標。

鮑曼是美聯儲利率制定委員會中較為鷹派的成員之一,他表示就業市場“持續緊張,職位空缺仍遠遠超過可用工人的數量”。

鮑曼表示:“鑑於這些事態發展,我支持在 7 月份的會議上提高聯邦基金利率,並且我預計可能需要進一步加息才能將通脹降低到FOMC的目標。”

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