美元指數可能在年底前測試100關口

隨著市場在2023年最後幾天的交易中重新開放,美元繼續下跌。

DXY Index – Weekly Chart

美元指數-週圖

美元指數報100.95,未來兩天可能會測試100水準。 這將是2024年的關鍵水平,支撐位在98和95以下。

由於交易員看到聯準會利率見頂和降息舉措,美元遭到拋售。 有關美國經濟的數據也走軟,交易員認為美元的表現超過了世界上一些最大的貨幣。 人們可能擔心,如果削減力道不夠大,經濟衰退就會接近。

另一個問題是在政治領域,科羅拉多州等州試圖讓川普退出2024年的總統大選。 隨著領先候選人面臨的其他訴訟不斷增多,11月大選前的幾個月可能會變得更具爭議性,並損害美國的投資流動。 美國兩黨之間進一步的緊張關係可能會蔓延到未來一年的債務上限問題和其他關鍵投票。

2023年,另外兩家評級機構以政治壓力為由下調了該國的債務評級,但債務是一個更大的問題。

中國人民銀行前顧問餘永定也表示,中國不應該再投資其持有的美國公債。

「中國應加速調整海外資產負債結構,提高海外淨資產收益率,降低外匯存底在海外資產的比重。」對橋水對沖基金億萬富翁達裡奧來說,需求放緩同樣存在風險。

「我們國家將面臨債務危機,」達裡奧說,他指出公共借款規模龐大,對政府公債的需求下降。 「我認為經濟將出現明顯放緩,」他補充說。 達裡奧表示,美國與中國和俄羅斯的關係狀況也是政府債務的「完美風暴」。

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