英鎊兌澳幣聚焦即將公佈的GDP和澳洲聯邦儲備銀行會議紀要

本週,隨著英國經濟成長數據和澳洲央行會議紀要的公佈,英鎊兌澳元匯率可能會出現一些波動。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英鎊兌澳幣—日圖

英鎊兌澳元一直在尋求在2.00上方的高點處獲得支撐位。這將是未來幾天的重要考驗。

英國經濟GDP成長數據將於香港時間週一下午3點公佈。分析師預期年回報率為1%,每月成長率為0.1%。然而,最近的英國央行會議表示,未來兩季的成長率將為0%,英鎊兌澳元可能很難維持在2.00以上的漲幅。

澳洲指引將於週二公佈,澳洲儲備銀行會議紀錄將於香港時間上午8:30發布。澳洲央行如果釋放積極的立場,英鎊兌澳元可能會錄得中期頂部。

Home Loans創辦人Mark Bouris呼籲澳洲央行在2月的下次會議上降息,並警告澳洲同胞,經濟衰退正在逼近。他認為,持續的高利率可能會加劇經濟狀況,導致全面衰退。他說,需要提高利率來對抗通膨,但利率已經達到了目的。

「但現在,高利率的負面影響超過了好處,」他說。

“高利率已使經濟放緩到我們正處於全面衰退邊緣的地步。”

澳洲央行在2024年的最後一次董事會會議上將現金利率維持在4.35%不變,同時強調3.5%的潛在通膨率仍離其2%至3%的目標太遠。

隨著經濟放緩,英國可能會再次降息,英鎊兌澳元可能很難延續最近的走勢。

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