英鎊兌澳幣週四聚焦經濟數據

英鎊兌澳元匯率受到週四經濟數據的影響,包括貿易數據和英國央行的行動。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英鎊兌澳幣-日線圖

英鎊兌澳幣正在測試阻力位1.9975,如果在此失敗,該貨幣對可能會回到1.86。英鎊的任何走強都可能造成突破局面。

數據將於香港時間週四上午8:30公佈,澳洲的貿易帳數據和分析師預計的70億美元,低於70.79億美元。

英國數據將於香港時間晚8點公佈,屆時英國央行將召開利率會議。英國央行的行動可能是可以預測的,但任何變化都可能導致未來一兩週出現新的趨勢。無論銀行的決定如何,新聞發布會都可能改變投資者的想法。

我們必須考慮到最近英國預算和財政方面的壓力。

英國央行會宣布比預期更大的降息來幫助政府嗎?

英國正因缺乏成長和就業而苦苦掙扎。最近的稅收威脅只會加劇這個問題,許多關鍵的帳單,如能源、水和市政稅,都將在未來幾個月大幅上漲。

較低的借貸成本可以幫助政府,支持成長和就業,部分抵消對預算的反應。金融市場和經濟學家目前預計,英國央行今年將三度降息。

澳洲經濟可能面臨川普政府對中國徵收關稅的風險。

Judo Bank的澳洲1月PMI數據從去年12月的50.2升至51.1,突顯出私部門活動溫和成長。柔道銀行服務業PMI從50.8升至51.2,標誌著服務業連續第12個月擴張。

隨著澳儲行在2月再次降息的可能性增加,澳幣可能進一步貶值。自2023年11月以來,澳洲央行一直將官方現金利率(OCR)維持在4.35%,政策制定者表示,在任何政策變化之前,通膨必須「可持續地」回到2%-3%的目標區間。

英鎊兌澳幣正觸及阻力位,有可能出現回檔。

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