受消費者數據和英國央行演講影響,英鎊兌澳元可能轉為活躍

週二,隨著澳洲消費者數據和英國央行政策制定者的講話,英鎊兌澳元匯率可能會有所變動。

GBPAUD – Daily Chart

英鎊兌澳幣——日圖

英鎊兌澳幣已跌破一些關鍵阻力位轉為支撐位,並有可能在未來幾週內跌向1.93區域。如果英國財政狀況進一步惡化,進一步加稅,那麼2.0的水準有可能成為中期高點。

週二將於香港時間上午8:30公佈的澳洲西太平洋銀行1月消費者資料。該指標在12月下滑了0.2%,經濟學家希望能有所改善。澳洲家庭連續第七個季度陷入衰退,經濟學家將其歸咎於薪資成長放緩。

下午4:30,英國央行官員布雷登將發表演說。這位英國央行的政策制定者對上周英國國債殖利率的飆升不以為然,並表示她願意繼續進一步降息。

儘管最近有降息動作,但投資者在周一降低了對央行降息步伐的押注。利率期貨目前顯示,英國央行在2025年12月前降息約43個基點,預計將有兩次降息25個基點。

當唐納德·川普成為總統並開始他的以美國為中心的政策時,投資者正準備迎接美國更多的通膨壓力。在最近的恐慌之後,市場也可能把提高利率視為吸引債券投資的答案。

英國首相表示,他對財政大臣“充滿信心”,稱她做得“非常出色”,但拒絕透露她是否會在他的整個任期內留任。

英鎊跌至14個月新低,英國公債殖利率升至4.9%。 30年期公債達到27年來的最高水準。

投資者應在未來幾天和幾週密切關注英鎊,因為任何政策變化都可能導致大幅波動。

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