由於關稅擔憂加劇,歐元兌美元連續六天下跌

歐元兌美元週三下跌0.26%,延續了連續六個交易日的跌勢。由於貿易擔憂持續打壓市場情緒,該貨幣對自3月初以來首次跌破1.0750。

美國總統川普重申了4月實施廣泛關稅的計劃,這增加了不確定性。作為回應,歐盟表示,它正在準備自己的一套反制措施,以應對美國可能採取的貿易行動。

隨著風險情緒的減弱,歐元兌美元仍處於壓力之下,並可能隨著4月2日的臨近而進一步下跌。

川普總統計劃對進口汽車徵收25%的關稅

川普政府正在推進對所有進口到美國的銅徵收廣泛關稅,與最近對鋼鐵和鋁徵收25%的統一進口稅保持一致。此外,川普總統預計將對汽車徵收新的關稅。歐盟官員預計,美國可能對一系列商品徵收約20%的關稅,但具體細節仍不確定。

聯準會的穆塞勒姆預計,到2027年通膨率將回到2%

這些關稅可能是將於4月2日生效的更廣泛的「互惠」貿易政策的一部分。目前尚不清楚某些國家是否會獲得豁免。擬議中的措施旨在與其他國家對美國商品徵收的關稅相匹配,為國際貿易政策增加了一層新的複雜性。此外,川普總統也表示,增值稅和奢侈品稅可以被視為對美國出口產品徵收的間接關稅,並可能被納入互惠關稅結構中。

美國經濟數據展望

美國GDP成長數據定於週四公佈,不過預計最終數據不會引發重大的市場波動。本週的焦點將是定於週五公佈的核心個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數。投資人正在密切關注最近通膨的上升是否只是暫時的,但預測顯示,2月份個人消費支出年化通膨率可能年增至2.7%。

歐元兌美元價格預測

歐元兌美元繼續下跌,連續六天的下跌使該貨幣對從上週的峰值1.0950上方下跌了近2%。看跌勢頭依然強勁,該貨幣對正在接近200日指數移動均線(EMA),即1.0700下方的水平。

EURUSD – Daily Chart

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