美通脹高企 市場憂更激烈加息

上周美國4月CPI年率公佈報8.3%,較上月8.5%稍微放緩,程度未能如市場預期回落至8.1%。就4月份的通脹數字,反映美國通脹仍然高企,通脹跟現時利率水平之濶,支持美國聯儲局主席鮑威爾和其他鷹派立場官員的加息言論,激發投資者對下月加息幅度可能高於50基點並展望今年內加息幅度可能擴大的憂慮,促使資金繼續流入美元,美元指數持續刷新20年高位,同時美國10年期國債收益率維持逼近3%水平。

繼美國通脹公佈後,本周更多歐洲及美國公佈的最新通脹及其他跟消費市場有關的數據,市場觀望是否見通脹觸頂的信號。明晚,市場聚焦跟消費息息相關的美國4月零售銷售,該結果足以影響美元兌其他貨幣及商品價格走勢。

其後,本周歐元區將公佈4月CPI修正值和歐央行會議紀要。歐央行會議紀要內容可能會提及歐元區第三季初結束其購債刺激計劃隨後加息的安排,市場注視歐洲央行會否轉鷹,引導資金回流歐元。歐洲央行自上周以來已經有相關立場的支撐,但是礙於美元企穩在20年高位,歐元技術上依然被困低位,兌美元跌破兩周區間底部,本周看歐央行紀要是否夠鷹,若配合匯價在2017年1月低點1.0340尋支撐,周線圖可展望其雙底形態形成後的反彈。

近期英鎊的連續走弱也吸引投資者關注,英鎊兌美元於周線圖見,創下2019年8月以來的最長連跌,本周英國公佈最新就業數據和CPI,這兩項數據的結果不止為英國經濟把脈,若欠缺增長將難以抵消市場對於英國經濟前景憂慮。最新預期英國央行在下半年可能會暫停加息,加上美元依然強勢英鎊仍以走弱為主,有機會繼續向1.2000關口靠近,並在2020年3月低點尋找支撐。

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